Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 11, 2020

Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention

Category:

Topic:

  • Results of simulation experiments from a computational model developed by Bartsch et al. indicate that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine would need to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and at least 80% to extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing) in the US. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could reduce or eliminate the need for other measures under certain circumstances, such as such as a vaccination coverage of nearly 100%. 

Bartsch et al. (July 15, 2020). Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011