Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 12, 2020

Model-Based Projections for COVID-19 Outbreak Size and Student-Days Lost to Closure in Ontario Childcare Centres and Primary Schools

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Phillips et al. used an agent-based model to generate predictions of SARS-CoV-2 infection and student-days lost within a hypothetical childcare center with 50 children and educators under existing proposals for childcare and school re-opening in Ontario, Canada.  
  • Scenarios with student to teacher ratios of 7:3 with co-habiting students (e.g., siblings) grouped together had the lowest risk (lowest effective reproductive number). A 15:2 configuration generated a well-defined epidemic curve even with classroom closure protocols in place, while smaller (8:2 and 7:3) configurations produced a more sporadic series of infection events.  
  • Under higher density configurations (15:2) the mean duration of student days lost to closures ranged from 145 to 215 days depending on transmission conditions compared to 13 to 16 days in a lower density configuration (7:3).  

Phillips et al. (Aug 11, 2020). Model-Based Projections for COVID-19 Outbreak Size and Student-Days Lost to Closure in Ontario Childcare Centres and Primary Schools. Pre-print downloaded on August 12 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.07.20170407