August 17, 2020

The Common Interests of Health Protection and The Economy Evidence from Scenario Calculations Of COVID-19 Containment Policies

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Germany introduced restrictive shutdown measures in March 2020. The reproductive rate (Rt) fell below one in April 14. On April 20th, a gradual loosening of the restrictions was announced. With a lag of two weeks Rt increased again at the beginning of May. Based on these data during the initial shutdown phase, Dorn et al. constructed a simulation model to project the number of additional COVID-19 deaths until July 31st, 2021 with different scenarios of further loosening or tightening the shutdown measures. They report that a gradual opening approach is economically optimal, whereas costs are higher for a more extensive opening process.  

Dorn et al. (Aug 16, 2020). The Common Interests of Health Protection and The Economy Evidence from Scenario Calculations Of COVID-19 Containment Policies. Pre-print downloaded Aug 17 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.14.20175224