Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 17, 2020

Widespread Testing Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing a Modeling Analysis of King County WA Data

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  • [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Modeling based on King County in Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 would result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A combination of increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths.  

Bracis et al. (Aug 16, 2020). Widespread Testing Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing a Modeling Analysis of King County WA Data. Pre-print downloaded Aug 17 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.14.20174649