Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

September 14, 2020

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Social Vulnerability and COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates in the United States

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  • [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Classifying US counties based on a social vulnerability index and comparing COVID-19 burden over time shows that early in the COVID-19 pandemic, US counties with a high social vulnerability index had fewer COVID-19 cases. However, after March 30, the relationship reversed and counties with higher social vulnerability experienced a greater burden of cases, with the excess burden peaking on July 29 (RR=3.22). By late August, the discrepancies between counties with higher and lower social vulnerability had declined. Differences in COVID-19 burden based on county-level social vulnerability were partially explained by rural/urban distribution and resident health level, and average daily pollution levels (PM5).

Neelon et al. (Sept 11, 2020). Spatial and Temporal Trends in Social Vulnerability and COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates in the United States. Pre-print downloaded September 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.09.20191643