Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 1, 2020

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

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  • Among 28 vaccine experts (20 Canada, 6 US) with 25 median years of experience working with vaccines (range 8–42), 53% said the pace of COVID-19 research is increasing the potential for errors. The median probability forecast that a vaccine would receive a black box warning label for a widely deployed vaccine was 30% and that the first field study would not report a positive efficacy endpoint was 40%.

Kane et al. (Sept 28, 2020). Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines. Journal of General Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-020-06244-9