Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 2, 2020

Model-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Noncompliance with Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Disease Control

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[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study using an SEIRS model reported that more effective COVID-19 interventions would require a lower proportion of people to comply with them to achieve complete suppression of SARS-CoV-2 spread among US populations. For an intervention with 50% efficacy, at least 95% compliance is required; for an intervention with 70% efficacy, at least 92% compliance is required; for a 99% effective vaccine, still greater than 80% compliance is required, indicating the overall impact was disproportionately affected by noncompliant individuals. 

Stoddard et al. (Dec 2, 2020). Model-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Noncompliance with Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Disease Control. Pre-print downloaded Dec 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.29.20240440