Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 7, 2020

Covid-19 Will Reduce US Life Expectancy at Birth by More Than One Year in 2020

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[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Based on data from the Johns Hopkins University online dashboard, the US passed the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths (275,000) that would lower the life expectancy at birth (LEB) for 2020 by one full year on December 3rd. By comparison, the opioid crisis led to an average 0.1 year decline in LEB annually from 2014 to 2017, and at its peak, the HIV epidemic reduced the U.S. LEB by 0.3 year in a single year from 1992 to 1993. Currently, US LEB is expected to revert to 2010 levels. 

Heuveline et al. (Dec 4, 2020). Covid-19 Will Reduce US Life Expectancy at Birth by More Than One Year in 2020. Pre-print downloaded Dec 6 from   https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.03.20243717