Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 7, 2020

Effect of Early Application of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 Mortality over the First Pandemic Wave: An Analysis of Longitudinal Data from 37 Countries

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A longitudinal ecological study found that cumulative mortality during the first wave of the pandemic was lower across 37 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries when bans on mass gatherings and school closures were implemented early in SARS-CoV-2 epicenters. A one-day delay in implementation of a mass gatherings ban was on average associated with an adjusted increase in cumulative mortality of 7%, while the same delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.4%. The study estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, COVID-19 cumulative mortality may have been reduced by an average of 44.1%. 

Piovani et al. (Nov 30, 2020). Effect of Early Application of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 Mortality over the First Pandemic Wave: An Analysis of Longitudinal Data from 37 Countries. Journal of Infection. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033