Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 21, 2020

Sub-National Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance across the UK a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Spatial Modelling Study

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[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A predictive modeling study of vaccine hesitancy in the UK that used a large-scale survey data and Bayesian statistical methods to estimate public opinion predicted that clusters of non-vaccinators will likely emerge in many regions across the UK, including London and the North West. Respondents (n= 17,684) were surveyed between September 24 and October 14, 2020. Across the UK, less than half of respondents said they would “definitely” accept a COVID-19 vaccine (47.5%), while 8.7% stated that they would “definitely not” accept a vaccine. Men were more likely to state intent to accept the vaccine than women (OR 1.59), and people who identified as Black were less likely to report willingness to accept the vaccine than those who identified as white (0.47). 

Figueiredo et al. (Dec 18, 2020). Sub-National Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance across the UK a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Spatial Modelling Study. Pre-print downloaded Dec 21 from  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.20248382v1