Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 6, 2021

A Method for Prioritizing Risk Groups for Early SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination, By the Numbers

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[Pre-print, not-peer reviewed] A logistic regression model to predict COVID-19 case and death risk by age, race, and sex found that if the 17 demographic groups at highest risk of death from COVID-19 were prioritized for vaccination, it would require only 3.7% of the vaccine supply needed to vaccinate all the United States, and yet prevent 47% of COVID-19 deaths. Risk of death among nursing home residents (5200/100,000) was higher than the highest demographic risk group while risk of death in incarcerated people and health care workers was lower than demographic groups with the highest risk.

McDonald et al. (Dec 24, 2020). A Method for Prioritizing Risk Groups for Early SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination, By the Numbers. Pre-print downloaded Jan 6 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.18.20248504