Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 19, 2021

Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Allocation Using Real-Time Seroprevalence Estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts

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Vaccine allocation models parametrized to the seroprevalence estimates of Rhode Island and Massachusetts show that allocating >75% of the vaccine supply to individuals ≥70 years old optimally reduces total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. Although not explicitly modelled, allocating a majority of the supply to other high-risk groups will yield the same effect. Vaccinating seronegative individuals only avoids redundancy and could result in 1-2% reductions in cumulative hospitalizations.

Tran et al. (Jan 15, 2021). Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Allocation Using Real-Time Seroprevalence Estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Pre-print downloaded Jan 19 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.12.21249694