Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 25, 2021

The Potential Public Health and Economic Value of a Hypothetical COVID-19 Vaccine in the United States: Use of Cost-Effectiveness Modeling to Inform Vaccination Prioritization

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A Markov cohort model estimating COVID-19 related direct medical costs and deaths in the US found that with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with 60% efficacy, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for the US adult population would be $8,200 (compared to no vaccination). For those at high risk of hospitalization and death, vaccination was cost-saving compared to no vaccination, but the cost per QALY gained increased to over $94,000 for those at low risk. The study estimated that the vaccine could prevent 31% of expected deaths if large supplies were available, compared to 23% if supplies were limited. 

Kohli et al. (Jan 2021). The Potential Public Health and Economic Value of a Hypothetical COVID-19 Vaccine in the United States: Use of Cost-Effectiveness Modeling to Inform Vaccination Prioritization. Vaccine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.12.078