Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 29, 2021

Estimating Aerosol Transmission Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City Public Schools During Reopening

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Using previously collected indoor air quality data from New York City public schools, Pavilonis et al. estimated the probability of in-classroom transmission to be 5% for student-to-student transmission, 14% for student-to-teacher transmission, and 20% for teacher-to-student transmission after the introduction of one infectious person into the classroom. Consistent mask wearing by both students and teachers was associated with lower predicted transmission rates, while the probability of transmission increased during the winter due to closing windows and doors to retain heat. Classrooms with mechanical ventilation, which increases the rate of outdoor airflow in indoor classrooms, had lower predicted probabilities of infection. Older schools and schools in low-income areas had lower predicted probability of transmission, potentially due to lower airtightness compared to newer or recently renovated schools.

Pavilonis et al. (Jan 26, 2021). Estimating Aerosol Transmission Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City Public Schools During Reopening. Environmental Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110805