Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 18, 2021

FDA-Authorized COVID-19 Vaccines Are Effective per Real-World Evidence Synthesized across a Multi-State Health System

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[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were 89% effective (95% CI: 68-97%) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection occurring at least 36 days after the first dose in a 1:1 propensity score matched analysis of over 60,000 individuals in the US between December 2020 to February 2021. Among those subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19, vaccinated patients had significantly lower 14-day hospital admission rates compared to matched unvaccinated counterparts (3.7% vs 9.2%). Vaccine efficacy 7 days after receiving the first dose was 54% (95% CI: 41-64%), which increased over time to a maximum of 93% (95% CI: 70-99%) between days 36-42.

The authors note that a key limitation of the study was shorter follow-up time compared to the phase 3 trials (27 days vs. 80-90 days); 45% of the vaccinated cohort had only received one vaccine dose for some efficacy analyses. Additionally, bias on seeking PCR testing between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients was not addressed.

Pawlowski et al. (Feb 18, 2021). FDA-Authorized COVID-19 Vaccines Are Effective per Real-World Evidence Synthesized across a Multi-State Health System. Pre-print downloaded Feb 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251623