Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 4, 2021

Estimated Transmissibility and Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England

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  • A transmission model fitted to COVID-19 epidemiological data from the UK around the time of the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant suggest that the variant is 65-82% more transmissible, but has similar risk of hospitalization, critical illness, and death compared to earlier variants. Simulations done while removing a more transmissible variant from the model could not reproduce the observed epidemiological dynamics, indicating that changing contact patterns alone could not explain the rapid spread. The model also suggests that without a substantial vaccine-rollout (2 million people fully vaccinated per week), the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 could exceed those in 2020, even with stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in place. [EDITORIAL NOTE: A Pre-print related to this manuscript was summarized on December 28, 2020]

Davies et al. (Mar 3, 2021). Estimated Transmissibility and Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055