Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 5, 2021

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates — United States, March 1–December 31, 2020

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  • A comparison of US county-level data on mask mandates and restaurant re-openings in relation to county-level changes in COVID-19 case and death growth rates across the country (n=3,142 counties) between March-December 2020 found mask mandates were associated with decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates in all intervals from 1-20 to 81-100 days after implementation, as well as reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission. 
  • Allowing any on-premises dining was associated with increases in daily COVID-19 case growth rates by 41-60 after reopening and through 81-100 days after reopening. Restaurant reopening was also associated with increases in the death growth rate within 61-80 days and through 80-100 days.
  • Associations between policies and COVID-19 outcomes were measured using a reference period (1-20 days before implementation), and growth rates were defined as percentage point change. Regression models controlled for several covariates, including bar closures, stay at home orders, bans on gatherings of ≥10 persons, daily SARS-CoV-2 tests 100,000 persons, county and time.  

 Guy et al. (Mar 5, 2021). Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates — United States, March 1–December 31, 2020. MMWR. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7010e3