Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 11, 2021

Risk of Mortality in Patients Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/1: Matched Cohort Study

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  • The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant was associated with an overall 1.6-fold increase in risk of death compared to previously circulated variants, according to a matched cohort study (n=54,906) of patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK between October 2020 to January 2021. Risk of death was not significantly increased within 14 days of follow-up after the first positive SARS-COV-2 test result, but increased to 2.4-fold in days 15 to 28. Participants were matched on age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation, lower tier local authority region, and sample date of positive specimens, and differed only by S gene target failure, a test result characteristic of B.1.1.7 infection. In this relatively low-risk group, the increase in risk of death corresponds to an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1,000 detected cases.

Challen et al. (Mar 9, 2021). Risk of Mortality in Patients Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/1: Matched Cohort Study. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n579