Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 29, 2021

Sudden Rise in COVID-19 Case Fatality among Young and Middle-Aged Adults in the South of Brazil after Identification of the Novel B.1.1.28.1 (P.1) SARS-CoV-2 Strain Analysis of Data from the State of Parana

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An analysis of 553,518 cases of SARS-CoV-2 (8,853 fatal) between September 1, 2020 and March 17, 2021 in the Brazilian state of Parana found higher COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) among nearly all age groups that coincided with local identification of the SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant. All age groups showed either a decline or stabilization of CFRs through January 2021, but an increase in CFRs for almost all age groups occurred in February 2021. The CFR among those aged 20-29 years tripled (0.04% to 0.13%), while the CFR approximately doubled for those aged 30-39, 40-49, and 50-59. Individuals between 20 and 29 years who were diagnosed in February 2021 had a higher risk of death compared to those diagnosed in January 2021 (RR = 3.15), while the risk of death among those aged 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 years was 1.93-, 2.10-, and 1.80-fold higher, respectively.

Oliveira et al. (Mar 26, 2021). Sudden Rise in COVID-19 Case Fatality among Young and Middle-Aged Adults in the South of Brazil after Identification of the Novel B.1.1.28.1 (P.1) SARS-CoV-2 Strain Analysis of Data from the State of Parana. Pre-print downloaded Mar 29 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.24.21254046