Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 3, 2021

Structural Analysis of the Novel Variants of SARS-CoV-2 and Forecasting in North America

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  • A forecasting model incorporating North American prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern from the genome database GISAID suggests that the B.1.1.7 variant could become dominant (>60% of sequenced strains) by summer 2021 but would sharply decrease in frequency when 75% of the population is immune through vaccination or natural infection due to its high binding affinity to the neutralizing antibody CV30 (~90%). Though the B.1.351, B.1.617, and P.1 variants remain in low frequencies, they may each consist of up to 5% of strains even after high vaccination coverage due to their lower binding affinity to neutralizing antibodies (~70%).

Quinonez et al. (May 17, 2021). Structural Analysis of the Novel Variants of SARS-CoV-2 and Forecasting in North America. Viruses. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050930