Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

November 4, 2020

They’re Dying in the Suburbs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Geography in Louisiana (USA)

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[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The epicenter of the Louisiana COVID-19 epidemic has varied temporally, beginning in the urban core of New Orleans and then moving to suburban/rural areas. Using census tract- and parish-level data in Louisiana, Schnake-Mahl et al. reported that the incidence (73 cases per 10,000) and mortality rate (5.6 deaths per 10,000) of COVID-19 were initially highest in New Orleans during the first wave of the epidemic which occurred during March-April 2020. During the period of July-September 2020, trends reversed with suburban/rural areas experiencing higher rates than New Orleans. During the second peak, suburban and other urban areas had incidence rates over 70 cases per 10,000, nearly double the rate in New Orleans. Since May, positivity ratios have hovered close to 10% in other urban, suburban, and rural areas while remaining below 5% in New Orleans. Social vulnerability was associated with increased positivity and incidence during the first peak, and these disparities were ameliorated during re-opening and the second peak. 

Schnake-Mahl et al. (Nov 3, 2020). They’re Dying in the Suburbs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Geography in Louisiana (USA). Pre-print downloaded Nov 4 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221341