December 15, 2020

Impact of Population Growth and Aging on Estimates of Excess U.S. Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Public Health Policy and Practice

Keywords (Tags): candidate, clinical characteristics, public health, report, summarize

Accounting for changes in the population age in the four-year period between 2015 and 2019 compared to the period between March and August of 2020 reduced estimates of excess deaths in the US from 301,400 deaths to 218,000 deaths, which substantially increased the contribution of COVID-19-related deaths (173,300 from March to August) to an excess of deaths from 57% to 80%. Most excess non-COVID-19 deaths occurred in April, July and August, primarily among people 25 to 64 years. Diabetes, Alzheimer disease, and heart disease caused the most non-COVID-19 excess deaths.

Shiels et al. (Dec 15, 2020). Impact of Population Growth and Aging on Estimates of Excess U.S. Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020. Annals of Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-7385