Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 21, 2021

Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Number of New Infections with COVID-19 during the First Epidemic Wave

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[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using a Bayesian model and data from the first epidemic wave of 20 countries (including the US) to examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, event bans (canceling mass gatherings of >50 people) were associated with the highest reduction in the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections. Event bans reduced new infections by 37%, followed by venue closures (18%) and school closures (17%). Stay-at-home orders were estimated to reduce new infections only by 4%.

Banholzer et al. (Jan 20, 2021). Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Number of New Infections with COVID-19 during the First Epidemic Wave. Pre-print downloaded Jan 21 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249884