Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 9, 2021

Modelling the Impact of Reopening Schools in Early 2021 in the Presence of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variant and with Roll-out of Vaccination against COVID-19

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[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An existing transmission model calibrated to the UK (Covasim) calculated that a full national lockdown until April 2021, including school closures, could lower the effective reproduction number R below 1 by March 2021 when combined with a vaccination campaign capable of 200,000 daily doses targeted to elderly people. The model incorporated the presence of the B.1.1.7 variant and assumed a 95% vaccine efficacy. Partial lockdown scenarios with limited school reopening, such as only opening for exam critical years or using a two-weekly rotating system between primary and secondary schools would lead to more total number infections but would not increase R above 1. However, full reopening after April 2021 would increase R above 1 in all modelled scenarios.

Panovska-Griffiths et al. (Feb 9, 2021). Modelling the Impact of Reopening Schools in Early 2021 in the Presence of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variant and with Roll-out of Vaccination against COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Feb 9 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.07.21251287