Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 29, 2020

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

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  • Researchers provide demographic characteristics, exposure history, and epidemic for 425 laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV reported prior to Jan 22, 2020 divided over three time periods: cases with illness onset prior to Jan 1, onset Jan 1-Jan 11, and onset Jan 12 or after. 
    • Patients with earlier onset were more likely to report exposure to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. 
    • Mean incubation period estimated to be 5.2 days (95% CI: 4.1-7.0). 
    • R0 was estimated at 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9).
    • There was some variation in time between illness onset and first clinical visit and hospitalization across the three time periods.
  • Findings support a 14-day observation period for exposed persons. 

Li et al. (Jan 29, 2020). Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. NEJM. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316