Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 6, 2020

Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing

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  • Chowell, et al. model the effects of potential control measures.  With a 100% effective vaccine, 80% coverage could end the epidemic in 6 months. Absent a vaccine, testing and isolation could end the epidemic in a similar timeframe if 90% of symptomatic cases could be reached within 24 hours of symptom onset. Other scenarios are also provided.

Chowell, et al. (Feb 5, 2020). Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing. Pre-Print downloaded on 6 Feb, 2020 from, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20020271v1