Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 10, 2020

The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights

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  • 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan at the end of January and were screened for 2019-nCoV symptoms (63 symptomatic) and tested (8 tested positive by RT-PCR, 5 of whom were asymptomatic). 
  • Using data from these travelers, researchers estimated the rate of under-ascertainment of cases in Wuhan to be 9.2%. This would suggest a true case fatality far lower than recent estimates, likely closer to 0.3-0.6%. 

Nishiura et al. (Feb 4, 2020). The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. J Clin Med. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419