April 8, 2020

COVID-19 pandemic: Impact of lockdown, contact and non-contact transmissions on infection dynamics.

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Roy adapted the classical epidemic modelling framework and incorporated a direct person-to-person contact and indirect airborne and fomites-driven transmission parameters to assess the effectiveness of lockdown. To be effective, the models suggest that considerable reduction in both contact and non-contact transmission rates over a long period is required. The author concludes that any premature withdrawal of lockdown can lead to a quicker, sharper and higher secondary peak and recommends exit policies from lockdown using accurate time-series data on infection cases and transmission rates.

Roy (April 4, 2020). COVID-19 pandemic: Impact of lockdown, contact and non-contact transmissions on infection dynamics. Pre-print downloaded Apr 8 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20050328