April 8, 2020

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Sanche et al performed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high resolution domestic travel and infection data. Models showed that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days and median R0 value of 5.7. This was in contrast to other studies that reported doubling time outside Wuhan as 6-7 days and R0 of 2.2-27. To slow the infection, models show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Sanche et al. (April 8, 2020). High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. Emerg Infect Dis. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282