Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 29, 2020

Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19

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  • Grimm et al propose an extension of the SEIR model to enable analysis of commonly used measures of epidemic control. The model allows for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. It analyzes the interplay of group-specific protection with a large number of groups reflecting sectoral, regional, or age differentiation and group-specific take-up rates for tracing apps.
  • The results visualize the sharp trade-offs between different goals of epidemic control, namely a low death toll, avoiding overload of the health system, and a short duration of the epidemic. 

Grimm et al. (April 29, 2020). Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Apr 29 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078113