May 18, 2020

Strategic Release of Lockdowns in a COVID Infection Model

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Zhang implemented SIR models to determine the earliest time of a multi-phased release of the population from lockdown restrictions for two states, Illinois and New York, constrained by a specified threshold on the subsequent peaks of infection.  
• If the population under lockdown is to be released in equal sized batches, then it is prudent to wait for a substantial decrease in “active infections.” If the population under lockdown is to be released at a steady rate, then that release rate should be quite low. An adaptive gradual release policy with a variable rate results in maintaining reduction in active infected cases and provides a relatively fast release of the population from lockdown. 

Zhang. (May 15, 2020). Strategic Release of Lockdowns in a COVID Infection Model. Pre-print downloaded May 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.10.20096446