Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 21, 2020

Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Pei et al. estimated that if non-pharmaceutical interventions in the U.S. had been implemented 1-2 weeks earlier, then 62% (95% CI: 55%-68%) of reported COVID-19 infections and 55% (95% CI: 46%-62%) of reported deaths would have been averted. The authors also estimated that longer delays in re-implementing social distancing following a relaxation of control measures could result in a stronger rebound of infections and death.  

Pei et al. (May 20, 2020). Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States. Pre-print downloaded May 21 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655