Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 26, 2020

Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France

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  • Roques et al. modeled the COVID-19 epidemic in France, and estimated that lockdown reduced the effective reproductive number by a factor of 7 (Re = 0.47, 95%CI 0.45, 0.50), and that only 3.7% of the population (95%CI 3.0%, 4.8%) would be infected by the beginning of May, far below the herd immunity threshold.  

Roques et al. (June 5, 2020). Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France. Frontiers in Medicine. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00274