Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 8, 2020

Estimating the Establishment of Local Transmission and the Cryptic Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA

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  • [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Davis et al. estimated that there was widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States by February, 2020. Their modeling suggests that international travel could have seeded outbreaks in West and East Coast metropolitan areas as early as December, 2019. However, for most states, domestic travel contributed to the largest proportion of imported infections. 

Davis et al. (July 7, 2020). Estimating the Establishment of Local Transmission and the Cryptic Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA. Pre-print downloaded July 8 from  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.06.20140285