Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 13, 2020

A Minimal Model for Household Effects in Epidemics

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Huber et al. present a mathematical model that reflects the effect of social distancing interventions on contact structures, allowing for fast transmission within households and slow transmission between households. They show that epidemic growth depends on household size, but this effect is attenuated beyond a threshold (following a square root law), suggesting that establishment of larger households (i.e., social circles) may be preferred to re-integration of all contacts during re-opening. 

Huber et al. (July 11, 2020). A Minimal Model for Household Effects in Epidemics. Pre-print downloaded July 13 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.09.20150227