Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 27, 2020

Simulating the Effect of School Closure during COVID-19 Outbreaks in Ontario, Canada

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  • Using an age-structured agent-based model parametrized with demographics from Ontario, Canada, Abdollahi et al. found that increasing the duration of school closures from 3 to 16 weeks reduced the COVID-19 attack rate by 7%-13% when contacts among school children were restricted by 60-80%. Adding varying degrees of voluntary social isolation among mildly symptomatic persons further reduced the attack rate. 

Abdollahi et al. (July 24, 2020). Simulating the Effect of School Closure during COVID-19 Outbreaks in Ontario, Canada. BMC Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01705-8