Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 28, 2020

Using Social Contact Data to Predict and Compare the Impact of Social Distancing Policies with Implications for School Re-Opening

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using UK social contact data collected in 2010 and Google mobility report data pre- and post-lockdown, Brooks-Pollock et al. estimated an age-adjusted R0 for COVID-19 and relative change in R0 in scenarios including school closures, work closures, and contact tracing. They found that a 65% reduction in work contacts, a 75% reduction in leisure contacts, and a 95% reduction in school contacts reduces R0 to 0.7 (95% CI 0.6, 0.8), versus 0.45 (95% CI 0.41, 0.50) when all non-household contacts were eliminated. A scenario in which all children are back at elementary school resulted in an R0 that remains below 1 only if non-household contacts remain low, or if a high proportion of contacts can be traced and self-isolate.    

Brooks-Pollock et al. (July 27, 2020). Using Social Contact Data to Predict and Compare the Impact of Social Distancing Policies with Implications for School Re-Opening. Preprint downloaded on July 28 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.25.20156471