Investigation of fish passage alternatives for the Willamette Valley Project with focus on the Middle Fork Willamette River
Project ID: W912HZ-19-2-0022
Federal Agency: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Partner Institution: University of British Columbia
Fiscal Year: 2019
Initial Funding: $98,978
Total Funding: $990,997
Principal Investigator: McAllister, Murdock
Agreement Technical Representative: Carmichael, Deberay
Abstract: MANAGEMENT PURPOSE: Estimate and compare the potential biological performance of fish passage alternatives for upstream and downstream fish passage at the Lookout and Dexter dam complex. Information will be used to determine the biological feasibility and preferred fish passage approaches to be carried forward for potential design and implementation.
The UBC research team will develop a structured decision analysis framework to coordinate stakeholders, scope the decision problem, and quantify the associated uncertainties about vital rates of spring chinook in the Middle Fork of the Willamette River and how these may change in response to different passage options. Alternative upstream and downstream passage options and operational objectives to be achieved will be defined, and a set of alternative hypotheses on how vital rates will respond to different passage options and supporting information for
associated passage simulation models will be established. The decision analytic framework will be applied to quantify the value of information (VOI) associated with different management
options for fish passage and uncertainties about their effectiveness. The VOI estimates will be analyzed to identify critical data gaps and associated research opportunities that will support the Corps’ missions and can inform collaborative decisions among several levels of policy and management. In the structured decision analysis, the risks of failing to re-establish a selfsustaining population of wild spring run chinook above the Lookout and Dexter Dams will be assessed by quantifying the potential for each passage option to affect the following:
Adult and juvenile fish collection and passage efficiency
Adult and juvenile fish survival and injury rates
Adult and juvenile migration timing.
Recruits per spawner (where recruits are defined as pre-fishery recruits and this metric is quantified separately for hatchery versus wild spawning chinook salmon.
For options years 2-5, a management strategy evaluation (MSE) approach to evaluating fish passage options will be developed. In the MSE, hypothesized biological outcomes of each set of passage options and the ability to effectively test the hypotheses under different adaptive management options will be compared. Three different MSEs will be developed where it is of interest to rebuild in a given tributary section (1) only spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), (2) only winter steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and (3) both spring Chinook an winter steelhead populations. Operating models to be applied in the MSE will be formulated using models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE); MICE will be developed to account for hypothesized ecosystem interactions, for example, between juvenile chinook and steelhead. The structured decision analysis framework and MSEs developed will account also for the projected outcomes of alternative fish passage options for other system components that must be considered, including, lost hydro power value, life cycle cost, recreation, and flood risk.
Objective 1. Upstream and downstream passage and vital rates for the Middle Fork Willamette are uncertain.
The results from Objective 1, Task 1 will inform Objective 2.
Objective 2. Design and model a structured decision set for transportation options and management practices for upstream and downstream passage in the Middle Fork of the Willamette River.