COVID-19 Literature Situation Report July 15, 2020

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Grantz et al. compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from 730 schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. The two methods produced highly correlated data on age-specific mixing patterns relevant to the dynamics of respiratory virus transmission. The results from the methods differed in that participants reported fewer but longer contacts in surveys relative to the generally short proximal interactions captured by wearable sensors. 

Grantz et al. (July 14, 2020). Age-Specific Social Mixing of School-Aged Children in a US Setting Using Proximity Detecting Sensors and Contact Surveys. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151696 

• Vivanti et al. demonstrated a transplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a neonate born to a mother infected in the third trimester and delivered at the Paris Saclay University Hospitals. RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was positive from multiple sites from the neonate, including blood, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, nasopharyngeal and rectal swabs, and placental samples. The neonate presented with neurological manifestations, similar to those described in adult patients. 

Vivanti et al. (Dec 14, 2020). Transplacental Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infection. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17436-6  

• Based on a sample of 172 suspected cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 795 negative plasma samples, IgG antibody testing had a 100% specificity (0/795) and IgG tests were positive for 83% of suspected cases among samples collected more than 14 days from symptom onset.  
• There was no association between the level of IgG and IgM reactivity and mild versus severe disease course. 

Phipps et al. (July 15, 2020). SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Do Not Predict COVID-19 Disease Severity. American Journal of Clinical Pathology. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcp/aqaa123 

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A systematic review (32 studies with 1,023 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients) showed the highest percentage of detection of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR was from nasopharyngeal sampling between 0 to 4 days post-symptom onset at 89% (95%CI 83%-93%). The percentage dropped to 54% (95%CI 47%-61%) after 10 to 14 days. Up to 30% of participants with SARS-CoV-2 detected in respiratory samples did not have detectable fecal samples.  

Mallett et al. (July 14, 2020). At What Times during Infection Is SARS-CoV-2 Detectable and No Longer Detectable Using RT-PCR Based Tests A Systematic Review of Individual Participant Data. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152793 

• An ecological study conducted by Klinger et al. find a strong negative correlation between the years of BCG administration and the deaths per million from COVID-19 based on data from 55 countries. Countries with BCG immunization policies over the past 15 years have a significantly lower rate of COVID-19 deaths than countries with no BCG in last 15 years (p=0.0004). [EDITORIAL NOTE: Results from ecological studies should be interpreted with caution due to unmeasured confounding between countries and may not reflect individual-level effects] 

Klinger et al. (July 11, 2020). Significantly Improved COVID-19 Outcomes in Countries with Higher BCG Vaccination Coverage: A Multivariable Analysis. Vaccines. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8030378 

• Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was reported in 21 samples from aircraft and cruise ship wastewater sanitation systems (adsorption-extraction by electronegative membrane [n=13] and ultrafiltration by Amicon [n=8]). Concentrations were near the limit of detection for the assay. Findings suggested the surveillance of wastewater from large transport vessels with their own sanitation systems could be a complementary data source to prioritize clinical testing and contact tracing among disembarking passengers. 

Ahmed et al. (July 14, 2020). Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Commercial Passenger Aircraft and Cruise Ship Wastewater: A Surveillance Tool for Assessing the Presence of COVID-19 Infected Travelers. Journal of Travel Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa116 

• The candidate vaccine mRNA-1273 was shown to induce antibody and T-cell immune responses in all participants (n=45). 
• Jackson et al. conducted a phase 1, dose-escalation, open-label trial including 45 healthy adults, to test the candidate vaccine mRNA-1273 encoding the stabilized prefusion of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Participants received two vaccinations, 28 days apart in three dose groups. 
• After the first vaccination, antibody responses were higher among those who received the higher dose. After the second vaccination, the titers increased and all participants had serumneutralizing activity. No trial-limiting safety concerns were identified.  

Jackson et al. (July 14, 2020). An MRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report. New England Journal of Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483 

• Among 9,850 health care workers Massachusetts between March 1 and April 30, 2020 13% were positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. Prior to implementation of universal masking (March 1-24, 2020), the SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate increased exponentially from 0% to 21%, with a case doubling time of 3.6 days (95%CI 3.0-4.5 days). After implementation of universal masking (April 11-30, 2020), the positivity rate decreased linearly from 14.7% to 11.5%, with a weighted mean decline of 0.49% per day. 

Wang et al. (July 14, 2020). Association Between Universal Masking in a Health Care System and SARS-CoV-2 Positivity Among Health Care Workers. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.12897 

• A multicenter study in the US compared 37 inpatients with cirrhosis and COVID-19 to age– and gender-matched patients with COVID-19 alone (n=108) or cirrhosis alone (n=127). Results showed that patients with cirrhosis and COVID-19 had a non-significantly higher mortality compared to patients with cirrhosis alone (30% vs 20%, p=0.16), and significantly higher mortality than patients with COVID-19 alone (30% vs 13%, p=0.03). The elevated mortality among those with cirrhosis and COVID-19 may be at least partially attributable to a higher degree of co-morbidities, as measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index. 

Bajaj et al. (July 13, 2020). Comparison of Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis and COVID-19 Compared with Patients with Cirrhosis Alone and COVID-19 Alone: Multicentre Matched Cohort. Gut. https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2020-322118 

• In a nationally representative sample of 1,041 adults from the general population of the Republic of Ireland, the rate of COVID-19-related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was 18%. Of individuals who screened positive for PTSD, 54% met the criteria for depression, 50% for generalized anxiety disorder, and 60% for either depression or anxiety. COVID-19-related PTSD was associated with younger age, male sex, living in a city, living with children, and moderate and high perceived risk of COVID-19 infection. 

Karatzias et al. (July 13, 2020). Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and Associated Comorbidity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Ireland: A Population‐Based Study. Journal of Traumatic Stress. https://doi.org/10.1002/jts.22565 

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Andrasfay and Goldman used COVID-19 projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and estimated a reduction in life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19 of greater than 1.5 years for Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would be a 30% increase (from 3.6 to 4.7 years) in the Black-white gap in life expectancy. The survival advantage among Latinos would decline by 36%, equivalent to its magnitude in 2006. 

Andrasfay and Goldman. (July 14, 2020). Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US Life Expectancy for the Black and Latino Populations. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20148387 

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) team used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions at the state level from July 5 to December 31 2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046–649,582) by December 31st, 2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur in five states: California, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Virginia. The model indicates that an emphasis on universal mask use may reduce epidemic resurgences in many states, saving as many as 102,795 (95%CI 55,898 to 183,374) lives.  

IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team (July 14, 2020). COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151191 

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] During March 1-April 30, 907 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected among detained persons (n = 628) and staff (n = 279) in the Cook County Jail (Chicago) and there were 9 deaths. Programmatic activity and visitation stopped on March 9, and cells were converted into single occupancy beginning March 26. Universal masking was implemented for staff (April 2) and detained persons (April 13). Cases at the jail declined while cases in Chicago increased. 

Zawitz et al. (July 14, 2020). Outbreak of COVID-19 and Interventions in One of the Largest Jails in the United States Cook County IL 2020. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20148494