COVID-19 Literature Situation Report July 16, 2020

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Simulation modeling based on fluid dynamics models and mouse experimental models was used to estimate that the median infection risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 via aerosol exposure for one hour was more than three orders of magnitude lower than the risk due to close contact (13% based on a meta-analysis). 

Zhang and Wang. (July 15, 2020). Comparison of the COVID-19 Infection Risks by Close Contact and Aerosol Transmission. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152900 

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Iterative simulation modeling indicated that aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant contributor to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak. 

Azimi et al. (July 15, 2020). Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049 

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Escobar et al. developed a pooling method for SARS-CoV-2 testing protocols that uses machine learning to predict the probability of a negative result from sociodemographic data. The technique was most efficient at lower disease prevalence, and showed efficiency gains of 42% with respect to individual testing at disease prevalence up to 25%. 

Escobar et al. (July 15, 2020). Smart Pooling AI-Powered COVID-19 Testing. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152983  

• Universal testing of a skilled nursing facility without a known case of COVID-19 in Massachusetts revealed an 85% prevalence of COVID-19 among residents (n=97) and 37% among participating staff (n=97) during a serial testing program over approximately one week. The facility had universal masking, temperature checks and symptom screen procedures in place for staff for at least two weeks prior to the testing period.  

Goldberg et al. (July 15, 2020). Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Amongst Residents and Staff at a Skilled Nursing Facility: Results of Real-Time PCR and Serologic Testing. Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa991   

• Using deep immune profiling, Mathew et al. characterized immune responses among 125 patients with COVID-19 and identified 3 different immunotypes with unique T cell, B cell, and lymphocyte responses. These findings may suggest fundamental differences in immunological responses to SARS-COV-2 infection. 

Mathew et al. (July 15, 2020). Deep Immune Profiling of COVID-19 Patients Reveals Distinct Immunotypes with Therapeutic Implications. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc8511 

• Sattar et al. analyzed participants (n=4,855) from the UK Biobank and found a strong association between BMI and a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and COVID-19 related death. The gradient of risk across the range of BMI was steeper among those under 70 for COVID-19 related death. BMI was more strongly related to test positivity and death among members of non-white racial groups.  

Sattar et al. (June 30, 2020). BMI and Future Risk for COVID-19 Infection and Death across Sex, Age and Ethnicity: Preliminary Findings from UK Biobank. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2020.06.060  

• In a US multicenter cohort study of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU (n=2,215), independent risk factors associated with 28 day mortality included older age (≥80 vs <40 years of age: OR=11.15), male sex (OR=1.50), obesity (BMI ≥40 vs <25: OR=1.51), coronary artery disease (OR=1.47), active cancer (OR=2.15), and acute organ dysfunction (OR=2.43 to 2.61). Patients admitted to a hospital with fewer ICU beds had a higher risk of death (<50 vs ≥100 ICU beds: OR=3.28). Overall, 35% of the cohort died within 28 days. 

Gupta et al. (July 15, 2020). Factors Associated With Death in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the US. JAMA Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3596 

• In a retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Italy (n=3,988), independent risk factors associated with mortality included older age (HR=1.75), male sex (HR=1.57), history of COPD (HR = 1.68), history of diabetes (HR=1.18), hypercholesterolemia (HR=1.25), and poor respiratory status at ICU admission, as defined by three measures. The hospital mortality rate as of May 30 was 12 per 1000 patient days after a median observation time of 70 days. Eighty-seven percent of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation at the time of ICU admission. Overall mortality was 48% over a median follow-up period of 69 days (range 38-100). 

Grasselli et al. (July 15, 2020). Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy. JAMA Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3539 

• Results from a cross-sectional survey of Canadian youth (n=622) already participating in Mental Health and Substance Abuse studies, self-reports of prepandemic mental health compared to current mental health show statistically significant deterioration of mental health across both clinical and community samples. Self-reported substance use declined both in clinical and community samples, and some participants report some positive impacts. 

Hawke et al. (July 14, 2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on Youth Mental Health, Substance Use, and Well-Being: A Rapid Survey of Clinical and Community Samples. The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1177/0706743720940562  

• Results from participants (n=336,525) from US Census Bureau-administered nationally representative probability samples found that compared to US adults in 2019, US adults in April and May 2020 were more than 3–times more likely to screen positive for depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, or both, with more than 1 out of 3 screening positive for both. 

Twenge and Joiner. (July 2020). U.S. Census Bureau-Assessed Prevalence of Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms in 2019 and during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. Depression and Anxiety. https://doi.org/10.1002/da.23077 

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region to calibrate an agent-based model, Kerr et al. assessed the requirements for implementing a successful “test-trace-quarantine” strategy and found that if high mask compliance and school closures remain in place, realistic levels of testing (~4,000 routine tests per day) and tracing (50% of all contacts traced within 2 days) are sufficient to maintain epidemic control despite full return to workplace and community mobility.   

Kerr et al. (July 16, 2020). Controlling COVID-19 via Test-Trace-Quarantine. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154765 

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using publicly–available death registration data, Aburto et al. performed a demographic analysis of all-cause mortality during the first 26 weeks of 2020 in England and Wales and estimated 53,937 excess deaths (54% male). These deaths represent a 31% increase in mortality compared to the expected level based on previous years. The investigators also found a life expectancy at birth decrease of 1.7 for females and 1.9 years for males relative to 2019, respectively.  

Aburto et al. (July 16, 2020). Estimating the Burden of COVID-19 on Mortality Life Expectancy and Lifespan Inequality in England and Wales A Population-Level Study. Pre-print downloaded July 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20155077