Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 21, 2020

COVID-19 Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the United States before Phased Removal of Social Distancing Protections Varies by Region

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• [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Pan et al. quantified the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and found that only the most stringent level of restrictions (e.g, sheltering in place / stay-at-home, public mask requirements, or travel restrictions) significantly decreased COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US. These policies achieved at least a 50% reduction in case rates in six days, compared to eight days for the next highest level of policies (e.g. non-essential business closures, suspending non-violent arrests, suspending elective medical procedures, suspending evictions, or restricting mass gatherings of at least 10 people).

Pan et al. (Aug 20, 2020). COVID-19 Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the United States before Phased Removal of Social Distancing Protections Varies by Region. Pre-print downloaded Aug 21 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.18.20177600