Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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Tag: modeling

June 10, 2021

Optimizing Vaccine Allocation for COVID-19 Vaccines Shows the Potential Role of Single-Dose Vaccination

A model optimizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation calibrated to Washington State found that with high single-dose efficacy (>65%) and low baseline transmission, single-dose vaccination in all adults is optimal and can prevent up to 22% more deaths compared to a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. However, under low single-dose efficacy (20%) and high transmission…

June 8, 2021

Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies

A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model simulating an average US elementary and high school classroom found that over an 8-week quarter, asymptomatic weekly screening combined with an A/B schedule generally had the greatest reduction in in-school transmission. Vaccination of staff greatly reduced transmission, but only among staff. Reductions in transmissions varied depending on local SARS-CoV-2 incidence and…

June 7, 2021

Early Epidemiological Evidence of Public Health Value of WA Notify a Smartphone-Based Exposure Notification Tool Modeling COVID-19 Cases Averted in Washington State

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study of the impact of Washington State’s exposure notification tool, WA Notify, in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the first four months of implementation found that based on an estimated COVID-19 case fatality of 1.4%, WA Notify saved 30-120 lives over this period. A model was run on a range…

June 2, 2021

Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Memory Variants and Vaccines

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] The COVID-19 transmission model Covasim, with updated methods accounting for trajectories in immune response, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and vaccine roll-out, found that neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) correlated strongly with infection blocking.  The model suggests Nabs elicited by natural infection may provide more protection than the same level of Nabs elicited by vaccines; however, vaccines…

May 26, 2021

Monoclonal Antibody Treatment Prophylaxis and Vaccines Combined to Reduce SARS CoV-2 Spread

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US population found that allocating monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and treatment of persons with COVID-19 in combination with a vaccination program could substantially reduce infections and mortality. Allocation of mAbs as PEP to persons >65 years of age averted up to…

May 24, 2021

Epidemiological Characteristics of Three SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and Implications for Future COVID-19 Pandemic Outcomes

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study that accounted for under detection of infection, seasonality, concurrent use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass vaccination, found that the B.1.1.7 variant was 47% more transmissible but infrequently escaped immunity from prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 was 32% more transmissible and had 61% immune escape; and P.1 was 43% more transmissible…

May 18, 2021

Controlling Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Essential Workers of Enclosed Food Manufacturing Facilities

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] In a quantitative risk assessment model simulating a susceptible worker exposed to a SARS-CoV-2-infected worker during an 8-hour shift at an enclosed food manufacturing facility, infection risk was highest (96%) via droplet and aerosol transmission within 1-3 meters in the absence of any mitigation measures. Droplet transmission contributed mostly at 1 meter…

May 17, 2021

Risk of COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence with the Introduction of Vaccination Passes

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SIR model simulating the impact of vaccine passes or passports on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics found that different restrictions for passholders and unvaccinated individuals can result in a wide variety of epidemic trajectories, some of which may introduce new waves of infections. For example, while passholders may have fewer restrictions initially compared to…

May 12, 2021

Resuming In-Person Classes under COVID-19 Evaluating Assigned Seating Protocols in Limiting Contacts at Postsecondary Institutions

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Simulations of seating arrangements based on student enrollment data from the 2019-2020 academic year at the University of British Columbia found that assigned seating could reduce the mean number of contacts per student to 31 compared to 130 contacts per student with random seating. In combination with assigned seating, excluding large classes…

May 10, 2021

School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas

[Working paper, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that school reopenings in Texas in the fall of 2020 may have accelerated community spread of COVID-19, with 43,000 additional cases and more than 800 additional deaths within the first two months following reopenings. The report notes that schools in…

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