Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

September 2, 2020

Analyzing Inherent Biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and Serological Epidemiologic Metrics

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  • [Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study found that the observed peak in PCR-detected SARS-CoV-2 infections can follow the peak of true infection incidence due to prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 by approximately ten days in a scenario with an R0 of 1.6 versus 5 days when R0 is 3. Half of those who tested positive by PCR prior to the observed epidemic peak were actually in the prolonged PCR positivity stage. Additionally, the observed seroprevalence substantially underestimated true prevalence of ever having infection, with the underestimation most pronounced around the time of epidemic peak.

Makhoul et al. (Sept 2, 2020). Analyzing Inherent Biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and Serological Epidemiologic Metrics. Preprint downloaded Sep 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.30.20184705