Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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Tag: modeling prediction

June 14, 2021

Effect of Specific Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Counties of the United States

A modeling study estimating the impact of different non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies on the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number (Reff) found that NPIs that included closure of schools and leisure activities and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97) or face…

Spatial Accessibility Modeling of Vaccine Deserts as Barriers to Controlling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study showed that the early SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation (February 19 and March 17, 2021) in the US created “vaccine deserts” – areas with localized, geographic barriers to vaccine-associated herd immunity – which the authors suggest may impact population-wide efforts to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Using an empirically-parameterized spatial accessibility model that…

May 21, 2021

Controlling COVID-19 via Test-Trace-Quarantine

A modeling study found that high coverage of a test-trace-quarantine approach to COVID-19 containment could be sufficient for epidemic control even under a return to full workplace capacity and community mobility in a setting with low vaccine coverage. This approach involves regularly testing people with COVID-19 symptoms, identifying and testing potentially exposed contacts, and placing…

May 19, 2021

Modeling the Impact of Racial and Ethnic Disparities on COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to prevalence data on anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (n>15,000) collected in April 2021 from New York and matched with census data found that the burden of infection largely fell on minority populations until the herd immunity threshold was reached. Ma et al. (May 18, 2021). Modeling the Impact of Racial and Ethnic Disparities…

May 7, 2021

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting COVID-19  Vaccination

A modeling study of US population dynamics and COVID-19 vaccination scenarios demonstrated that every 1% increase in coverage could avert an average of 876,800 cases, depending on the number of  people already vaccinated, with the greatest gains achieved when increasing vaccine coverage in the  population from 0% to 50%. Additionally, the study demonstrated that increasing…

May 5, 2021

Effect of Manual and Digital Contact Tracing on COVID-19 Outbreaks: A Study on Empirical Contact Data

A model assessing the impact of contact tracing on epidemic size reduction suggests that for manual contact tracing, as the fraction of contacts correctly recalled increases there are linear reductions in epidemic size while reductions were quadratically reduced with digital contact tracing via apps, as both case and contact need to be running the app….

April 29, 2021

Detecting In-School Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Case Ratios and Documented Clusters

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model that accounts for a lower probability of symptomatic infection among children (21%) than adults (70%) found that only roughly 4% of in-school child-to-child transmission would be detectable with symptom-based contact tracing, even if all symptomatic cases are detected. The authors suggest that low in-school detection rates do not…

April 26, 2021

Simulated Identification of Silent COVID-19 Infections Among Children and Estimated Future Infection Rates With Vaccination

A modeling study determined that, in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines available to children, identifying 10-20% of “silent” or asymptomatic infections among children within 3 days after infection would reduce attack rates below 5% if only adults were vaccinated. Using an age-structured disease transmission model parameterized with census data, the study also found that if…

April 22, 2021

When Can We Safely Return to Normal A Novel Method for Identifying Safe Levels of NPIs in the Context of COVID-19 Vaccinations

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model with vaccination parameters calibrated to the state of Colorado suggests that complete relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) within the next year when vaccination uptake is ≤70% still risks exceeding hospitalization thresholds. The model also suggests that decisions to relax NPIs should account for regional heterogeneity in transmission and travel,…

March 31, 2021

Role of High-Dose Exposure in Transmission Hot Zones as a Driver of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics

A model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission found that community spread may be highly influenced by transmission within “hot zones” characterized by high viral dose exposure, such as indoor settings with poor ventilation such as long-term care facilities, prisons, and food processing plants. The authors conclude that this may indicate that targeting interventions to prevent transmission in…

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