Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

September 15, 2020

Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States

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  • In an SEIR model of a COVID-10 outbreak in a large US jail system, Puglisi et al. found that within 30 days, 6% of prisoners and 8% of staff will have symptomatic infections, predicting 5,695 cases, among whom there would be 3,388 symptomatic infections, 474 hospitalizations, and 34 deaths.

Puglisi et al. (Sept 9, 2020). Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States. Annals of Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.002