Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

September 22, 2020

Immune Life History, Vaccination, and the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 Years

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  • Saad-Roy et al. used SIR(S) models to explore how the COVID-19 pandemic might unfold under different assumptions about how long immunity lasts to SARS-CoV-2 and how protective it is against re-infection and transmission. They use these models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases given different protective efficacy and duration of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Saad-Roy et al. (Sept 21, 2020). Immune Life History, Vaccination, and the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 Years. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7343