Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

September 23, 2020

Optimal Dynamic Prioritization of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines



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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study reported that prioritizing a limited supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to certain population groups resulted in 17-18% fewer deaths, infections, and years of life lost compared to a non-prioritized strategy. The optimal strategies consistently prioritized older essential workers, though the model allowed the priority groups to vary over time.
  • Optimal group prioritization over the first 3 months starts with essential workers, then progresses to seniors, and school age children. As vaccination rates rise, precise prioritization becomes less critical and targeting widens to a larger set of groups.

Buckner et al. (Sept 23, 2020). Optimal Dynamic Prioritization of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines. Pre-print downloaded Sept 23 from