Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 5, 2020

Community Venue Exposure Risk Estimator for the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • Sun et al. developed a probability model to estimate the county-level community exposure risk during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. The model had three inputs: the real-time number of active and asymptomatic cases, the population in local communities, and the customer counts in public places.
  • They reported that between April 1 and July 15, 2020, the model successfully predicted outbreaks in COVID-19 hotspots like the Navajo Nation, New York, Georgia and Louisiana. The model’s estimated probability score was significantly associated with new cases in next two weeks. They conclude that the model could inform business and municipal COVID-19 policy to accelerate recovery with more precise risk estimates.

Sun et al. (Sept 29, 2020). Community Venue Exposure Risk Estimator for the COVID-19 Pandemic. Health & Place. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102450