Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 16, 2020

A Model-Based Evaluation of the Efficacy of COVID-19 Social Distancing, Testing and Hospital Triage Policies

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A model examining the effects of policy choices regarding social distancing, testing, and hospital triaging found that the most successful practices for reducing COVID-19 mortality were social distancing, increasing test availability while reducing the delay between administration and results, and prioritizing the care of the least-severely infected patients. The model simulated how SARS-CoV-2 spreads in a community of 10,000 people and found that reducing public contacts (people encountered while shopping, banking, etc.) had a stronger effect on the number of deaths than an equal reduction in private contacts (friends, family). The efficacy of a given policy choice was found to depend on what other policies were implemented at the time.

McCombs and Kadelka. (Oct 15, 2020). A Model-Based Evaluation of the Efficacy of COVID-19 Social Distancing, Testing and Hospital Triage Policies. PLOS Computational Biology. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008388