Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 20, 2020

Estimating the Infection-Fatality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the Spring 2020 Pandemic Wave: A Model-Based Analysis

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  • A model-based analysis of the SAS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City from March to June found an estimated overall infection fatality risk (IFR) of 1.4%. Stratified by age, overall IFR for those with ages 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and 75+ years were 0.1%, 0.9%, 4.9%, and 14.2%, respectively. The peak weekly IFR for adults ages 65-74 years and 75+ years were particularly high (6.7% and 19.1%, respectively), rates twice as high as previous estimates.

Yang et al. (Oct 19, 2020). Estimating the Infection-Fatality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the Spring 2020 Pandemic Wave: A Model-Based Analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30769-6